The Guardian (guardian_news) wrote,
The Guardian

The Democrats should win but, as in 2016, what should happen may well not

It remains to be seen if the president’s worst excesses still appeal to voters’ primal instinct – fear

America’s midterm elections are principally for the House of Representatives and the Senate, but they are usually regarded as a national referendum on the performance of the sitting president – and an important indicator of how the next presidential election may turn out. That’s especially true of polls held, as with Donald Trump on Tuesday, held during a president’s first term.

Historically speaking, the party of a first-term president has lost seats on all but two occasions since 1789 – sometimes disastrously, as happened to the Democrats in 1994 during Bill Clinton’s first term. In 1858, President James Buchanan’s Democrats were crushed by Abraham Lincoln’s newly formed Republicans, a fracture that opened the way for the American civil war.

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